North Carolina vs. St. John's (NY) Women's Basketball Predictions & Picks - NCAA Tournament First Round
Published: Mar. 17, 2023 at 5:42 AM HST|Updated: Mar. 18, 2023 at 5:39 AM HST
Saturday's game that pits the North Carolina Tar Heels (21-10) against the St. John's Red Storm (23-8) at Value City Arena has a projected final score of 67-60 (based on our computer prediction) in favor of North Carolina, who is the favorite in this matchup by our model. Tipoff is at 4:00 PM ET on March 18.
The Tar Heels lost their last matchup 44-40 against Duke on Friday.
North Carolina vs. St. John's (NY) Game Info
- When: Saturday, March 18, 2023 at 4:00 PM ET
- Where: Value City Arena in Columbus, Ohio
- How to Watch on TV: ESPN
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North Carolina vs. St. John's (NY) Score Prediction
- Prediction: North Carolina 67, St. John's (NY) 60
North Carolina Schedule Analysis
- The Tar Heels' signature win this season came against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, a team ranked inside the AP's Top 25 (No. 10). The Tar Heels secured the 60-50 win at home on January 8.
- The Tar Heels have seven Quadrant 1 wins, tied for the 19th-most in the country. But they also have nine Quadrant 1 losses, tied for the 35th-most.
- North Carolina has tied for the 45th-most Quadrant 2 victories in the country (four).
North Carolina 2022-23 Best Wins
- 60-50 at home over Notre Dame (No. 10/AP Poll) on January 8
- 73-64 over Iowa State (No. 17/AP Poll) on November 27
- 45-41 on the road over Duke (No. 13/AP Poll) on February 26
- 61-56 at home over Duke (No. 13/AP Poll) on January 19
- 56-47 at home over NC State (No. 27) on January 15
St. John's (NY) Schedule Analysis
- The Red Storm's signature win of the season came in a 69-64 victory against the No. 6 UConn Huskies on February 21.
- The Red Storm have four wins over Quadrant 1 opponents, tied for the 33rd-most in the nation.
- When facing Quadrant 2 opponents, St. John's (NY) is 5-1 (.833%) -- tied for the 37th-most victories.
St. John's (NY) 2022-23 Best Wins
- 69-64 on the road over UConn (No. 6/AP Poll) on February 21
- 66-62 at home over Creighton (No. 16) on December 4
- 66-61 at home over Marquette (No. 41) on January 18
- 66-64 over Purdue (No. 46) on March 16
- 61-57 over Memphis (No. 62) on November 25
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North Carolina Performance Insights
- The Tar Heels have a +301 scoring differential, topping opponents by 9.7 points per game. They're putting up 69.2 points per game to rank 104th in college basketball and are allowing 59.5 per contest to rank 57th in college basketball.
- North Carolina is averaging 64.5 points per game this season in conference matchups, which is 4.7 fewer points per game than its season average (69.2).
- The Tar Heels are averaging 73.7 points per game when playing at home. On the road, they are averaging 64.2 points per contest.
- North Carolina gives up 54.1 points per game at home this year, compared to 64.6 when playing on the road.
- The Tar Heels' offense has been much less effective over their last 10 games, racking up 61.7 points a contest compared to the 69.2 they've averaged this season.
St. John's (NY) Performance Insights
- The Red Storm outscore opponents by 6.0 points per game (posting 65.5 points per game, 168th in college basketball, and allowing 59.5 per contest, 57th in college basketball) and have a +185 scoring differential.
- In 2022-23, St. John's (NY) has averaged 63.1 points per game in Big East play, and 65.5 overall.
- At home the Red Storm are scoring 68.4 points per game, 6.0 more than they are averaging on the road (62.4).
- At home, St. John's (NY) gives up 57.8 points per game. Away, it concedes 62.1.
- The Red Storm have performed worse offensively in their last 10 games, putting up 60.6 points per contest, 4.9 fewer points their than season average of 65.5.
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