UHERO: Hawaii’s economy slowing, but experts still think recession is avoidable

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - Hawaii’s economy continues to slow, but experts are optimistic there won’t be a recession. That’s the prediction from the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization.

UHERO said while international tourism continues to recover, Hawaii will take a hit as daily arrivals from the U.S. mainland are expected to drop by 2% next year.

Currently, Japanese arrivals are only 25% of pre-pandemic levels.

Another issue holding back the economy is that researchers predict the job market will shrink over the next two years as more employees continue to leave the state despite increasing wages.

UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham provided example of the current state of Hawaii’s economy.

“That’s what we had in 2020. We had a multi-car pile up on the H-1 and even once that wreck’s gone, it takes all day long, into the night before the traffic gets unjammed. That’s kind of what we’re going through. This process of getting back to something normal,” he said.

Furthermore, economists said while inflation in Hawaii and nationally is welcome news, whether it continues to recede will depend on if the Fed pushes interest rates higher and for longer. UHERO said this could result in a sharper slowdown in Hawaii.

UHERO’s next report is slated for June.

To read UHERO’s full forecast, click here.