Pandemic modeling group predicts Hawaii’s COVID surge to peak in June

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - Hawaii’s COVID numbers are continuing to climb and expected to peak sometime next month, a new forecast predicts.

In its latest report, the Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling Group said there would be a lot of cases, but hospitalizations weren’t expected to be as high as prior waves.

The group of scientists and experts predicted the current surge to peak in June. That’s when Honolulu could see about 4,000 new cases a day.

Currently, the state Department of Health says Oahu is reporting about 650 new daily infections. But the real number is likely far higher given the prevalence of unreported home tests.

HiPAM researchers predict another surge could happen in July, largely driven by reinfections. But they do not expect COVID-related hospitalizations to spike as sharply.

As of last week, 126 COVID patients were hospitalized statewide.

Under HiPAM’s worst-case scenario for Honolulu, hospitalizations could top 200 by the end of this month and reach around 250 by late-June — well below its all-time peak of nearly 500 last September.

During the Omicron surge, more than 400 were hospitalized.

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