Forecast: Trade winds will kick up a notch the next several days

Classic Trade Winds
Ian is on its way of strengthening over the Gulf Coast of Florida and here at home trade winds are picking up slightly
Published: Mar. 21, 2022 at 3:11 AM HST|Updated: 24 hours ago
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HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - Good Tuesday evening. It will still be warm and humid.

What is happening? A weak surface ridge north of the area will maintain light east to southeast background winds to begin the week. The ridge and trade winds will gradually strengthen this week. Clouds and showers will increase across leeward areas and island interiors through Tuesday, before strengthening trades redirect showers across windward and mauka areas into the weekend.

Winds may become even lighter over the weekend as one of those fronts moves very close to the islands. For now, the expectation is that light to moderate trade winds will be locally gusty in the typically windier areas during the afternoons. There will likely be some day-to-day fluctuations in wind speed this week, but these will not be especially noticeable. The main forecast question is whether or not winds will be sufficiently light to allow afternoon sea breezes to drive cloud and shower formation over leeward areas. While leeward areas did see some afternoon clouds today, shower coverage and intensity was much less than what seen yesterday. Tomorrow will likely see a repeat of today, with some afternoon clouds leeward, and maybe a few showers, mainly over leeward Big Island.

A weak frontal boundary will remain in place between a high to our north and the main Hawaiian islands. However high resolution guidance indicates winds may pick up a bit Tuesday and Tuesday night over the Alenuihaha Channel. Thus a Small Craft Advisory may be needed during this time for that area. Otherwise trade winds will remain in the light to locally moderate range over the next several days.

Let’s talk surf! The current small south swell will continue to lower through Wednesday. Another small longer period south swell will fill in Wednesday night and Thursday with a slight reinforcement expected Friday and Saturday. A slightly larger long period south swell may arrive around Sunday. No significant north or northwest swells are expected through Thursday night with a small short period northwest swell expected Friday and Saturday. Another small but longer period northwest swell may arrive on Sunday. Short period choppy surf will remain rather small over the next few days with a slight increase possible later in the week and on into the weekend.

FRIENDS AND OHANA IN FLORIDA: Hurricane Ian is the Real Deal... and the Tampa Bay and SW Florida region is densely populated, which is a big concern. Some properties are just a foot over sea level . Florida’s low lying Gulf Coast...has to prepared to brace the impacts of a major hurricane with winds exceeding 130 mph. Making landfall Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours with winds 130+ mph. With winds that strong in combo of a high tide... the storm surge can exceed 12 feet in Naples. This is a huge concern.... the Gulf of Mexico basin differs from the Atlantic Ocean. It is shallower, saltier, and warmer The basin is unusally “Flat” with a gradient of 1 foot per 8000 feet. So what does that mean?... excess water churned up from the storm has no place to go but rushing onto land. Sending lots of Aloha to Florida.

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