Trade winds are expected through Sunday, along with passing clouds and showers for windward and mauka areas. An upper level low over the islands is adding some instability, which will mainly result in a few more windward showers, along with a chance of thunderstorms on the upper slopes of the Big Island.
By Monday, an approaching front will cause winds to weaken, especially for the western end of the chain, and we can expect afternoon clouds and pop-up showers. The front is forecast to weaken as it approaches the islands, but we don’t know yet how far it will get. For now, the forecast models say the front will reach Kauai with an increasing chance of showers for the Garden Isle and maybe Oahu around midweek before it stalls and dissipates.
At the beach, surf along all shores will remain well below advisory levels for the next several days. A moderate west-northwest swell is expected to arrive Monday night and Tuesday, with a potentially larger northwest swell generated by tropical cyclone Surigae in the west Pacific arriving around Thursday. Background swells are possible for south shores, while east shore surf will drop early in the week as the trade winds decline.
For mariners, a small craft advisory is posted for the usual windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island until 6 p.m. Sunday.