Trade winds are settling in for an extended stay and will gradually pick up speed over the next couple of days. Showers will be focused over windward slopes, with a chance for an isolated downpour or two, thanks to an upper level disturbance south of the state. Otherwise, we’re looking at locally breezy trades of 15 to 20 miles per hour through the weekend.
Strong high pressure is expected to develop north of the state early next week, while a strong low pressure system forms to the west. That will put the islands in a tight pressure gradient, which translates to strong and gusty east to east-southeast winds starting Monday into Wednesday. Showers will remain more likely for windward and southeast slopes.
On the ocean, a small craft advisory is posted for the usual windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island all the way through Sunday. There’s a chance the advisory will be expanded to all coastal waters over the weekend as the trade winds increase.
Surf will remain well below advisory levels for north and west shores until late Friday, when forerunners from a strong hurricane-force low will send surf that could peak near warning heights Saturday. Trade winds will also generate a choppy east-shore swell that could reach advisory levels as soon as the weekend. A small south swell is possible from Monday through Wednesday.