Mayoral race analysis shows Blangiardi won 26 of 34 districts in primary election

Election analysis: Blangiard won 26 of 34 districts in primary, but 140K votes up for grabs in general

HONOLULU, Hawaii (HawaiiNewsNow) - Less than 15,000 votes separated Honolulu mayoral race frontrunner Rick Blangiardi and second-place finisher Keith Amemiya in Saturday’s primary.

But about ten times that many votes cast for other candidates are now up for grabs in the November general election.

A Hawaii News Now analysis also shows that Blangiardi won in all but eight House Districts and held double-digit percentage point leads in places like Hawaii Kai and Kailua.

“That shows he has broad support and it’s not concentrated in any one area. So I think that’s a good sign for his campaign,” said Colin Moore, University of Hawaii Political Science professor and Hawaii News Now’s political analyst.

But the analysis shows that as you get closer to town, his lead shrinks to single digits -- like in Waialae and Kahala -- and by the time you get to Manoa, Amemiya wins the district with a 2.5 percentage point lead.

Former Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa won in Chinatown, Waipahu and her home district Waianae and Councilmember Kym Pine won in Kalihi Kai-Pearl Harbor, Makakilo and the Ewa Beach-Ocean Pointe District.

The challenge for Blangiardi will be picking the more than 90,000 Oahu residents who voted for Hanabusa and Pine.

“A lot of the Hanabusa supporters are going to go to Amemiya. Hanabusa attracted the more liberal voters, a strong labor vote. I think they’re going to find Amemiya more attractive,” Moore said.

But Moore also believes Blangiard will pick up many of Pine’s voters in more conservative districts such as Ewa Beach.

Blangiardi issued this statement today:

“I’m not going to assume whose voters will go where, instead I’m going to spend every minute of every day between now and November earning the support of every voter I can,” he said.

Meanwhile, Adam Wong, chair of the Amemiya for Mayor campaign said:

“We are eager to hear and learn from all the voters who did not choose Keith during the primary … our community-powered campaign will continue to work hard for every single vote,” Wong said.

With a little more than 10 weeks until the Nov. 3 general election, both sides have plenty of time to sway those voters.

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