City report claims housing shortage will end in 2028, but experts are skeptical

HONOLULU, Hawaii (HawaiiNewsNow) - A new city report concludes the housing shortage on Oahu will largely end in eight years. But experts said that’s too optimistic.

The report by the Department of Planning and Permitting said that population growth over the next several years will slow down while the inventory of known housing projects will grow significantly.

But real estate expert Ricky Cassiday said the city’s forecasted inventory includes projects announced in the media and those whose developers have sought zoning or permit requests.

He said many of those projects won’t be built -- especially if population growth slows.

“I hate to be the Scrooge that took away Christmas for people that hoped that the housing supply will explode,” he said.

“But you can’t grow inventory significantly.”

He said many of projects included by the city “are just entitlements on a piece land and some pieces of land will never get developed.”

City Planning and Permitting Director Kathy Sokugawa says the report stands on its own.

“A key point is that it is a ‘snapshot’ in time of where the market is going. As variables, such as market forces change, so will the conclusions," she said.

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