A weakening front has stalled north of the state, keeping light easterly winds over the islands along with mostly dry and stable conditions. There are a few showers for the southeast slopes of the Big Island due to a weak trough to the south. Otherwise, skies should be clear during the overnight and morning hours, with a few clouds and showers for interior areas due to afternoon sea breezes through Wednesday.
As we get into Thursday, a stronger front is expected to combine with an upper level disturbance, resulting in more widespread and intense showers. Kauai will likely get the brunt of the rainfall starting Thursday evening, with the wet weather spreading to the rest of the state Friday. The front could also bring strong and gusty winds Thursday night and Friday, but the forecast still needs to be fine tuned over the next few days.
Surf is going to be active for much of the week, with a high surf advisory now posted for the north and west shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and Molokai and the north shores of Maui through Wednesday evening. The swell will hold into Tuesday and Wednesday, with an evening larger swell that could push wave heights well into warning level territory Wednesday night and Thursday.