Good Wednesday evening. High pressure northwest of the state will maintain moderate trade winds and mainly windward showers through Thursday. The trades are here due to a high pressure fan in the driver's seat. It is located to our north-northwest and it will maintain moderate trade winds and a somewhat stable pattern of mainly windward showers through Thursday. High clouds will spread over the islands from the west Tuesday night and Wednesday, and cloud cover and rainfall chances will increase Thursday night and Friday as a disturbance aloft passes overhead. Models show more moisture over Maui and Hawaii Island. Hawaii Island Summits may see it's first significant snow of the season. Earlier we had a dusting in past months. A winter storm watch is up due to this snowfall plus strong winds expected on the summits.
High clouds will spread over the islands from the west with showery weather increasing statewide Thursday night and Friday as a disturbance aloft passes overhead.
During the weekend, the trade winds will likely be disrupted as a front approaches. There is a lot going on this weekend, including the Honolulu City Lights Block Party, the meet and greet with canoe-riding Santa, Hawaii Kai's Holiday Lights Sail among many other festive events across the islands. And on Sunday the Honolulu Marathon. During the weekend the winds drop off and it will feel like the holidays with cooler temperatures and slower winds.
A long-period north swell is expected to build Thursday/Friday, before turning to the northeast and getting reinforced over the weekend. During the peak of the event, surf is expected to reach advisory levels along north facing shores, and warning levels along east facing shores. A long-period northwest swell is possible late in the weekend as well.
Again, drier weather is expected during the weekend, with a land and sea breeze pattern resulting in a few showers over the island interiors during the day and near the coast at night. Trade winds will likely rebuild early next week as a high pressure builds to the north of the island chain.
Have a wonderful holiday season filled with aloha. It’s never too early in December to say... “Merry Christmas!”