A strong upper level disturbance is combining with deep tropical moisture to keep a threat of heavy rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms over Kauai and Oahu, which remain under a flash flood watch through Wednesday afternoon. Some of the heavier rain may edge into Maui County, but the system should begin withdrawing to the west by Wednesday afternoon. The heavier showers will be coming from the south, and usually-dry leeward sections, including the urban Honolulu area, will be prone to flooding.
The air mass over most of Maui County and the Big Island isn’t quite as wet or unstable, but the light winds and some moisture will mean there’s a chance of pop-up showers during the afternoon.
Conditions will start improving from east to west Wednesday night through Thursday night as the upper low moves west and a drier air mass and trade winds return, with a more typical weather pattern of windward and mauka showers through the weekend.
Surf will be small and quiet over the next several days. The only thing we’re tracking at the moment is a swell that could bring advisory level surf to south shores over the weekend. The box jellyfish advisory also continues for south and some west-facing shores on Oahu.