Nice trade wind weather is expected on Thursday, with strong high pressure to the north keeping the winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Conditions are very stable, so the usual windward showers will be limited, mainly during the nights and mornings.
Things start changing on Friday, when the winds will lighten up and shift a bit more east-southeast as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Winds will become light and variable by Saturday. An upper level disturbance is forecast to move over the islands Sunday and Monday, bringing a chance of locally heavy afternoon showers. Isolated thunderstorms may also be possible. We’ll know more as that time frame gets closer. For now, the forecast models say the upper trough should move east of the state by Tuesday, allowing for more stable conditions to move in.
Surf will remain below advisory levels for the coming week, but be on the lookout for some small northwest swells over the next few days, including a moderate swell Sunday afternoon. South shores are expected to get a bump on Saturday, while east shores will hold for another day or two before lowering due to the lighter trade winds. A small craft advisory remains posted for the Alenuihaha Channel between Maui and the Big Island.