In a poll conducted by KHNL in partnership with the Honolulu Advertiser, Senator Akaka can expect 51% of the vote compared to Representative Case's 38%. But 11% of the voters we contacted either don't know who they'd pick or declined to say.
Case often campaigned that this is a time for chance and that a vote for Akaka would leave Hawaii at risk by having two elder senators representing the state, but Akaka has broad support across all age ranges.
Sixty-one percent of voters under 35 years of age pick Akaka compared to 31% who'd pick Case.
"He's making an issue about transition and time for new leadership. That appeals strongly to people who are inclined to vote for Case anyway. The problem was it didn't make an impression on undecided voters," Honolulu Advertiser Political Columnist Jerry Burris.
Not surprisingly, Case does well with Caucasian voters while Akaka holds the lead with Japanese, Filipino and Hawaiian voters.
"The demographic factor that's interesting is Akaka is strong across the demographic field. Almost every category; whether it's age, income or ethnicity," Burris said.
Overall, the top five reasons in deciding who to vote for in this race are:
The candidate stance on issues -- 43%
The transition to the next generation -- 18%
Seniority in the U.S. Senate -- 13.5%
Respect for the candidate -- 10%