Good Monday morning. The muggy and voggy weather kicks off the month of October.
Light winds will make it feel more humid for now, but relief is on the way by midweek with building trade winds. This morning, the western end of the state is waking up to flashes of lighting with thunderstorms popping up over the coastal waters and approaching some shores.
We are tracking a front to our northwest that is approaching the state along with an upper level low digging down just northwest of Kauai. This is setting up for an unstable atmosphere over the western end of the state.
Shower chances will gradually increase over Kauai and Oahu with a slight chance for thunderstorms possible through Monday night firing up. The rest of the state will generally see some showers again during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday after daytime heating and with the humid air mass.
By Tuesday, the front will begin to weaken and the upper low is forecast to move gradually away to the west. Moisture associated with the front will also begin to move westward away from the islands.
We will then track an area of high pressure that will build in to our north beginning late-Tuesday with trade winds gradually making a return. Passing showers will tend to favor windward and showers. This strong high pressure fan will allow our winds to become quite breezy Thursday and Friday. Moisture embedded in the trades will cause for some passing windward and mauka showers with a few brief showers possible over some leeward neighborhoods.
As we head into next weekend, weather models hint we will be in for a rather wet trade wind pattern setting up over the state. Stay tuned.
Let's talk surf. A northwest swell associated with a developing storm-force low far northwest of the islands is forecast to fill in across local waters and it is set to peak today, then slowly ease into midweek. With this country swell, surf could near advisory levels later this afternoon especially along north and west facing shores of Kauai where the swell is forecast to be slightly larger.
Have a beautiful day in Paradise and first week of October. Trade winds will become quite breezy for the second half of the week.