Happy Aloha Friday. Enjoy the beautiful trade winds while they're here today. We are expecting slower winds by the weekend and then south winds to start off next week.
An area of high pressure is parked to the north of us but it will weaken by the weekend.
On Saturday, we will transition from a trade wind pattern towards a light and variable wind regime by Sunday. The Big Island will be closer to an area of moist and unstable air south of the state, so the chances of showers are a bit higher there. The rest of the state will likely remain drier through the weekend.
Another weak cold front will drop down to the north of the state next Monday through Wednesday. This will create a light and variable wind pattern with the best chance for showers during the afternoon and evening across mauka areas each day due to sea breezes.
Swell Outlook: Overlapping north-northwest and west-northwest swells will keep the surf from going flat over the weekend. Surf will temporarily ease into Monday, then build Tuesday into midweek as another northwest swell fills in along north and west facing shores. Small southerly swells will keep the surf from going flat over the weekend.
Hurricane update: We continue to track three tropical cyclones over the Atlantic. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and it will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall to the Bahamas. Hurricane conditions will also spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday.
Severe hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Saturday night. Irma is likely to make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts to much of the state. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for southern Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay, while Hurricane Watches have been issued northward into central Florida.
There is a chance of direct impacts in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify the magnitude and location of these impacts.
Stay tuned. Check on family and friends over the southeast mainland and make sure they have a plan they are putting to action.