News reports call it deep cuts. Republicans say they’re not cutting at all, merely reducing the rise. So which is it? A little of both. The AARP says they are real cuts if you dial out inflation, and real people will get less. They have released a chart that has projections based on three formulas.
The low one, the worse one, is based on historical growth rates. The middle one is the Congressional Budget Officer. The high one, the best, is based on CMS, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. I trust the Congressional Budget Office, but just for argument lets look at the best-case scenario.
By 2026, it says Medicaid spending for the aged will rise 2%, for the disabled will fall more than 5%, for children will fall more than 8%, and for adults in general will fall more than 12%. Ten years later the decline will range from more than 15 to more than 30 percent. The worst case scenario is two or three times as bad.
For years lawmakers called Obamacare a disaster. So far, they haven't proposed anything that isn't worse.
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