There have been discussions that we are overdue for a recession. That phrase, overdue for a recession, is based on the usual time between recessions. But it doesn't take into consideration the fact that every economic cycle is different. And a lot has been different since the market crash of 2008. Unprecedented action by the Fed, and bailouts by Bush and Obama, prevented a depression. But they also created a slower, more anemic than usual growth curve.
Look at the big four economic indicators – employment, industrial production, real sales and real income. Real means, adjusted for inflation. All these metrics are reasonably strong. Even industrial production is softer because of cheaper oil, not any actual slowdown. Something could happen five minutes from now that screws all this up.
But for now, enjoy your Independence Day, economically things are reasonably good.
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