Clouds are expected to increase over the islands Monday, with an increasing chance of rain by late in the day. By Tuesday, a developing area of low pressure to the west will bring unstable conditions and draw deep tropical moisture from the south. Locally heavy rain and a chance of thunderstorms are possible, but there's enough uncertainty in the forecast that make it hard to predict exactly when and where the heaviest rain will occur.
For now, a Flash Flood Watch is not posted, but if one goes up, we'll definitely let you know. A Winter Storm Warning will take effect Monday evening for Big Island summits due to the storm system.
Drier weather should move in by Thursday as the low lifts off to the northeast. However, winds will generally remain light with an overall flow from the southeast, which could spread volcanic haze from the Big Island to the rest of the state Thursday into the end of the week.
At the beach, surf is heading up for east facing shores and on the way down for north and west shores, all below advisory levels. A Small Craft Advisory will take effect Monday morning for the usual windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island.