Business Report: Real estate investments as a possible economic indicator
(Image: Hawaii News Now)
HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) -
A new Colliers report says total commercial real estate investment so far this year exceeds a billion dollars. It was 3 billion last year. A lot of that was just a single deal - the sale of a minority share of Ala Moana Center to Australian investors. Take that out and we’re still seeing a slowing of wheeling and dealing.
Colliers looks at Hawaii core capitalization estimates for four major kinds of real estate, looking back a decade, so these lines cover the boom and the bust in real estate that triggered the last recession. Retail and condos didn’t really start rebounding until last year. Office and industrial, have been slowly enlarging for longer than that.
Colliers takes a stab at placing different kinds of real estate investments on the usual cycle of rise and fall. It’s all data-based, not just a wild guess, but you can get away with treating it as a wild guess, since no two cycles are alike and no prediction is ever dead-on. Colliers also thinks the condo market is edging into oversupply, at least for those who can afford the condos being built. Hotels are close to peak, too, in Colliers’ estimation.
For other kinds of real estate it still looks like an up-cycle.