Forecast: Hurricane season officially starts today

Forecast: Hurricane season officially starts today

Good Wednesday morning.  It is the first official day of hurricane season. We are expecting a near average year with 4-7 forecast to develop within the Central Pacific basin. 

A somewhat wet trade wind pattern is lingering over some windward neighborhoods this morning including the Koolau range and parts of Maui and Hawaii Island. 

A weakening front is dissipating near Hawaii Island where passing showers have been located during the overnight hours.  It will likely be drier over leeward neighborhoods because the winds are slowing down by a notch and keeping moisture mainly confined to the windward side.  This front was nearly stationary, but it has now moved east and it is located just off of the Big Island.  

The strengthening trades will slow down a notch later this evening into your Thursday. The trades will then turn light and variable by Saturday as another surface trough, an area of low pressure, will approach close to the islands from the northeast. 

Our current 'trade wind-maker,' an area of high pressure anchored to our north,  is forecast to weaken during the second half of the week while this area of low pressure drifts into our windward waters over the upcoming weekend.  This will lead to shutting down the cooling trades in the process.

There is also a box jellyfish alert up for south and west shores.  Check signs posted by Ocean Safety before entering the ocean on those shores. 

For surf, we are tracking small to moderate surf that will continue along south facing shores as the current south-southwest swell becomes reinforced by another similar source on Wednesday. The small northwest swell that peaked yesterday will continue to ease through tonight. Another small northwest swell will be possible over the upcoming weekend and into early next weekend.  Choppy surf will continue along east facing shores through Thursday due to moderate onshore winds.

Surf will remain below advisory levels along all beaches through the period.

Since the winds are set to drop off this weekend, enjoy the trade winds while they are here. 

How will your Wednesday shape up? Your forecast calls for partly cloudy skies with some scattered showers over windward and mauka neighborhoods. Isolated showers will spill over to the leeward sides at times. Afternoon highs will range from 81 to 86.  Our overnight lows will drop to 69 to 74. Expect the winds to clock in from the northeast winds 10 to 20 mph and it will be a little stronger over our passes and channels.  Have a wonderful 'trade wind Wednesday.'

And it is wise to be prepared for this new hurricane season. We will have the latest information on our Hawaii News Now weather website under the Hurricane Center tab.

- Jennifer Robbins

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