Forecasters monitor disturbance southeast of state - Hawaii News Now - KGMB and KHNL

Forecasters monitor disturbance southeast of state

Image taken at 2:45 p.m. Monday Image taken at 2:45 p.m. Monday
HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) -

Meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a developing weather system in the Central Pacific located approximately 900 south-southeast of Hilo.

There is an area of thunderstorms well to our south that are becoming more organized and the latest weather models show an increasing chance that this will be a storm in the next several days. 

The latest GFS weather models show a 80 percent chance that this cluster of clouds becomes a tropical cyclone in the next 48-hours.  If the circulation becomes more prevalent, it would have a Hawaiian name.  It would be called, Kilo.  If this materializes, it would be the sixth named storm to form or cross into the Central Pacific Basin.

It is too early to know the exact path, but the weather models are suggesting for this to impact the islands in the way of rain, surf and maybe even winds, as early as, this weekend.  Since it is forming in our neighborhood of the Pacific Ocean, we will not have as much time to prep, however, from the latest weather models, it does not appear to be a strong cyclone if it progresses into a tropical storm. 

Stay with Hawaii News Now for the latest updates.

The Pacific Ocean has been extremely active throughout this hurricane season.  The most intense storms have been developing over the Western Pacific.  Right now, that trend continues with little sign of relief as two super typhoons are in the works. These twin typhoons: Goni and Atsani will continue to impact the Marianna Islands and parts of Asia.  The twin storms are on the heels of former storm, Typhoon Soudelor, which caused devastation in both Saipan and Taiwan earlier this month. According to typhoon climate archives and data, if these storms become super typhoons (reaching equivalent to category 5 strength) it would be the first time in history to see this caliber of storms side-by-side since 1997 (which was another intense El Nino year).    So far, in the books this year alone, the Western Pacific Ocean has seen as many as 23 large tropical storms, six of them reaching category-5 typhoon status.  Many experts are pointing at El Nino for the increase intensity of these storms.

Over the Eastern Pacific, there is a much weaker storm by the name of tropical depression Eleven-E.  This makes it the eleventh storm to form over the Eastern Pacific, but it is not expected to intensify during the next 48-hours and it will likely remain over the Eastern Pacific as a tropical depression.  If it did become stronger and more organized, it would be called, "Ignacio."  The latest weather models show that it will remain over colder ocean temperatures and move into a drier and more stable air mass, so it is unlikely it will be any threat to Hawaii or even to Mexico. 

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