Brewbaker sees little or no March revenue revision - Hawaii News Now - KGMB and KHNL

Brewbaker sees little or no March revenue revision

By Howard Dicus - bio | email

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - The chairman of the Council on Revenues says if there is any further revision to the current revenue forecast in March, he thinks it will be small.

Paul Brewbaker, answering questions at the 2010 Hawaii Real Estate Forecast Conference at the Hawaii Convention Center Thursday, noted that the most recent revision revised current growth from 2 percent to 3 percent but left forecasts for all outlying years intact.

The Council on Revenues, a panel of economists from government, academe and the private sector, develop a consensus tax revenue forecast which by law the state government must use as the basis of its constitutionally-required balanced budgets.

Brewbaker said he sees a continuing slow recovery from a downturn that he characterized as not as bad as the 1980s but not as good as the 1990s.

"We were not as bubblicious as elsewhere," he said.

With hundreds of commercial and residential real estate brokers comprising most of the audience, Brewbaker sounded a generally optimistic theme of home sales and construction activity.

"The level of home sales is below peak but it's better than the peak of the Japan bubble," Brewbaker said.

"Booya," he added, to laughter from the audience.

Economist Mike Hamasu of Colliers Monroe Friedlander predicted more lender competition in 2011, increased tenant demand, and more investors broadening their search to secondary markets like Honolulu.

"Buyers will jump in for fear of missing the bottom of the market," he said.

 Mark Bratton of Colliers said a lot of the office leasing activity was coming from engineers and other contractors involved with Honolulu rail and the Marines Corps move from Okinawa to Guam.

 "I see flat absorption as expansion from those guys is offset by others downsizing," he said.

Independent commercial real estate broker Mark Ambard said banks know the bottom hasn't been reached yet and predicted 10 percent further decline in lease rates.

"2012 will be really good," he said. "We just have to get through 2011!"

 Copyright Hawaii News Now 2011. All rights reserved.

Powered by Frankly