"Recovery," the UH Economic Research Organization said Friday, "is shaping up to be a long slog."
With U.S. economic rebounding slowing down in recent months - 2.7% growth expected for the full year - UHERO sees "anemic" recovery for the world as a whole.
UHERO warns the strong yen is "choking off" Japanese exports, important to the overall economy of a nation that sends Hawaii thousands of visitors a day.
The Japanese economy is on track to grow 3.5% this year but UHERO predicts only 1.5% in 2011.
China, even with slowing growth, could see its gross domestic product expand 8.9% next year, UHERO said, and its economists are forecasting 7.1% growth for East Asia and South Asia, including India.
UHERO puts some blame on banks. "The broader money supply has been flat recently, as banks hoard reserves rather than make loans," UHERO says. "There has been virtually no growth in aggregate bank lending in recent months. This is a particular problem for smaller firms who cannot tape credit markets directly."