Poll shows governor's race is close - Hawaii News Now - KGMB and KHNL

Poll shows governor's race is close

Former US Representative Neil Abercrombie Former US Representative Neil Abercrombie
Mayor Mufi Hannemann Mayor Mufi Hannemann
Lieutenant Governor James "Duke" Aiona Lieutenant Governor James "Duke" Aiona
Dan Boylan Dan Boylan

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - We have more exclusive poll results for you tonight.  This time our Hawaii News Now/Honolulu Advertiser poll focused on the race for governor.  All three men found positives to take out of the poll results and they say the numbers will change once their campaigns hit high gear.

In a head to head battle between Neil Abercrombie and Mufi Hannemann, former congressman Abercrombie has the lead by a margin of 36 to 32 percent.  The margin of error is four percent.

"Then you have all this undecided, don't know at 21 percent.  Where are they going?" said Dan Boylan, Hawaii News Now Political Analyst.

The poll also put republican candidate Duke Aiona against both democrats.  Abercrombie has a strong lead over Aiona at 49 to 35 percent.  Against Hannemann Aiona is down by a similar margin 48 to 35 percent with the undecided at 17 percent.

"I would call the gubernatorial race a dead heat.  Obviously Duke Aiona hasn't spent any money yet either," said Boylan.

Abercrombie leads Hannemann in nearly every category including all ethnic groups.

"We have double digit leads with democrats, women, union members, all these different categories and I don't think that's so much a reflection on me as it is a reflection on the people's desire to have a positive campaign, issue oriented, no negativity, no politics as usual," said Neil Abercrombie.

Republican Duke Aiona isn't worried.  He says there is plenty of time to get his message out and plans to ramp up his campaign over the summer.

"A week is a lifetime in politics and campaigning so I think it's just too far out to get excited about anything but it does give you an indication of where you are at and I'll say it again whether I'm up or down, the only poll that matters is the one on November 2nd," said Lt. Governor Duke Aiona.

Mufi Hannemann still hasn't officially announced his candidacy but an announcement could come later this month.

"Critics are wondering what you're waiting for, is there any chance you will not enter this race?" asked reporter Lisa Kubota on Sunrise.

"Well Neil's people are working very hard to keep me where I'm at.  There is a rumor a day.  People want me to run and its clear by these poll numbers since Neil has been out there. If were the case the democrats and everyone would be uniting behind him but that's not the case," responded Mufi Hannemann.

The poll was also taken before the civil unions debate flared up which could sway some voters.  The primary election will be held September 18.  The general election will be on November 2.



If the Democratic Primary were held today and Mufi Hannemann and Neil Abercrombie were both running to be the Democratic candidate for governor, who would you vote for?

Neil Abercrombie - 36%
Mufi Hannemann - 32%
Don't Know/Refused - 21%
Voting in GOP Primary - 11%

If the November general election were held today and the candidates for governor were Mufi Hannemann and James "Duke" Aiona, who would you vote for?

Mufi Hannemann - 48%
James "Duke" Aiona - 35%
Don't Know/Refused - 17%

If the November general election were held today and the candidates for governor were Neil Abercrombie and James "Duke" Aiona, who would you vote for?

Neil Abercrombie - 49%
James "Duke" Aiona - 36%
Don't Know/Refused - 16%

Source: Ward Research, Inc. Apr. 2010

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