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New Tsunami Forecasting Tool

By Paul Drewes

MANOA (KHNL) - Those who keep an eye out for destructive tsunamis coming our way, now have another tool to forecast damage from these powerful waves.

It's a warning that many have heard in Hawaii:

"This is the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center with an urgent warning for all four counties around the state of Hawaii".

A distant earthquake sparks a tsunami in the pacific and hawai is under a watch or even a warning. But just how big will the wave be when it reaches our islands?

"You try to figure out what the tsunami would be like when it gets to Hawaii" says Dr. Kwok Fai Cheung, a researcher with the University of Hawaii. But a new tsunami forecast model developed at UH under Dr. Cheung, would take some of the guesswork out of these powerful waves.

When an actual tsunami occurs, already generated computer simulations would be quickly matched up with initial data from tsunami buoys and tidal gages giving us a clearer picture of potential damage.

"It will take the water level data near the tsunami source and calculate what the tsunami will look like anywhere in the pacific basin." says Cheung.

This new forecast model give accurate estimations of tsunami size, so rather than just say a big tsunami is on the way, the models would show a 10ft tsunami would hit the south shore of Oahu.

Because this is a global concern, other countries around the pacific have expressed interest in the University of Hawaii forecast model.

And here in the islands, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center is looking at possibly including this tool in future emergencies.

Dr. Cheung is also working on another forecast project that will give us an up close look at local "surf" waves. Showing in detail, what to expect for the next seven days.